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Home » Two Babies, One Fox—and a Lifelong Lesson That’s Going Viral! Don’t Miss It! - Network4

Two Babies, One Fox—and a Lifelong Lesson That’s Going Viral! Don’t Miss It! - Network4

📅 May 19, 2026 👤 scraface

May 19, 2026

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📌 So the probability that at least 2 strains establish is:

📌 We compute this recursively by tracking all paths that result in exactly 3 colonies at hour 3.

📌 Lets define $ P_n(k) $ as the probability of having $ k $ colonies at hour $ n $.

📌 Each colony produces 0, 1, or 2 with equal chance.

📌 We compute $ P_2(k) $ by considering all ways $ k $ colonies can arise from splitting.

📌 Let $ A $ be the number of colonies at hour 2, and each independently produces 0, 1, or 2 offspring. We want total offspring = 3.

📌 But since $ a $ varies, we must sum over all possible $ a $ such that total offspring sum to 3.

📌 Only way: three produce 0, one produces 3? No — max per colony is 2. So need three 0s and one 3? Impossible. Or one 1 and three 0s? No — only 4 colonies. To sum to 3, possibilities: (1,0,0,0) and permutations.

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